2014, Haacker et al. Agricultural production activities directly contribute 11%–13% of the world's total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (IPCC 2014). The aim of his project is to forecast scenarios of what Australian agriculture might look like and entail in 2050, and to ensure Australia's food supply landscapes and systems remain sustainable. Dr Joshua Zeunert from UNSW Built Environment. Global agriculture towards 2050: High-level Expert Forum on how to feed the world in 2050, 12-13 Oct 2009 Format Analysis Source. Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA. 2014, Pretty and Bharucha 2014, IPES-Food 2016); heterogeneity among regions (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012, Mueller et al. 2012), yield plateaus (Grassini et al. Rapid production growth in recent years has made substantial progress toward the original projected increases of 46% and 100%. Challinor AJ, Watson J, Lobell DB, Howden SM, Smith DR, Chhetri N. [DME] Danish Ministry of the Environment. Sources: MRGMWNTF 2015, Foley et al. Protofarm 2050 acknowledges that there is no silver bullet with the problem of sustainable farming, and instead focuses on an array of scenarios that could become viable in the future. Dr Zeunert became a full-time academic around 10 years ago after working in award-winning landscape architecture and urban design offices as well as casual teaching. The two projections have drastically different implications for the future of crop production. The experts will include federal and state government ministers, key government decision-makers, heads of relevant departments like agriculture and primary industries; university-based, CSIRO and independent researchers; national and state leaders of key representational bodies such as the National Farmers’ Federation; NGO, volunteer, advocacy and not-for-profit organisations like Landcare and the Australian Food Sovereignty Alliance; and key figures in agriculture and the media. We use the most recent FAOSTAT data (FAO 2016), from 2014, as the baseline for our projections. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide, This PDF is available to Subscribers Only. Therefore, we do not address the related social, economic, and geopolitical dimensions of SI (Loos et al. 2013, Pretty and Bharucha 2014, Rockström et al. The goals of sustainable intensification extend beyond aggregate production and environmental performance. Public and scientific discourse on the subject focuses primarily on two studies (Tilman et al. To quantify resource use in agriculture in 2050 virtual resource content (VRC) factors were established (Odegard, 2011). Authorised by the Chief Communications Officer, UNSW Division of External EngagementProvider Code: 00098G ABN: 57 195 873 179, It's not too late: 5 ways to improve the government's plan for threatened wildlife, New eco-friendly way to make ammonia could be boon for agriculture, hydrogen economy, UNSW academics rank among the most influential globally, New defect rectification guide helps apartment owners navigate building faults. The report highlights, nonetheless, … 2016), and (b) SI environmental goals should aim to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning in both managed and natural systems (Neufeldt et al. 2011, Ray et al. Here, we focus on the US context. 2011, Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). Our objectives are to clarify the overarching productivity and environmental goals of SI and to recalibrate the narrative on the future of agriculture. 2015). Research and policy should pivot to align with this strategy, both in the United States and globally. “Fierce national competition over water resources has prompted fears that water issues contain the seeds of violent conflict. First, Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012) of the United Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projected a 60% increase in demand from a 2005/2007 baseline using a price-weighted index of food commodities. Many authors call for production increases of 60%–100% by 2050, based on two recent food-demand projections (Tilman et al. Here, we focus on the US context. Goals should reflect the updated projection that production must increase approximately 25%–70% from recent levels to meet demand in 2050. 2011-67003-30343 and USDA Organic Research and Extension Initiative grant no. Global agriculture towards 2050 population growth Source: UN Population Division, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. and underpinning a huge slice of our economy. The FAO projected cereals demand in 2050 directly (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). Loos J, Abson DJ, Chappell MJ, Hanspach J, Mikulcak F, Tichit M, Fischer J. Mortensen DA, Egan JF, Maxwell BD, Ryan MR, Smith RG. California Agriculture in 2050: Still Feeding People, Maybe Fewer Acres and Cows Lori Pottinger February 18, 2020 Water supply concerns, regulations, labor issues, tariffs, climate change, and other challenges have prompted some rather dire predictions about the future of California agriculture. The FAO also adjusted its projection to account for potential saturation of meat consumption in the largest developing country, China, and cultural factors limiting the growth of meat consumption in the second largest, India (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). Achieving both production and environmental goals will require shifts in US agricultural policy. Global climate change is widely accepted as an everyday reality and anything that contributes to it – including industrial agriculture – is both unethical and unlawful. Data from 2012 to 2050 in five-year intervals is available for visualization and download at country level by scenario and where applicable, by commodity or animal species. 'As well as text, data and numbers, we can make visual representations of the scenarios using graphic, illustrative and spatial techniques.'. Meeting food demand while maintaining functioning ecosystems will require a recalibrated SI strategy, in which up-to-date production goals are coupled with quantitative environmental targets. Scientists also face a limited number of opportunities to develop and test new production and conservation strategies. Both of these projections account for crops used as animal feed and, to a limited extent, as biofuel feedstock. The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is rife with the assertion that food production must increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—to meet surging demand. These two examples show that agriculture still faces large environmental challenges, but they are not meant to imply that the sector has not made any progress. In 2013, they were grown on 47% of global cropland and provided 63% and 56% of calories and protein, respectively, from human-edible crops (table S3; FAO 2016). We build and update approximations of the FAO (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012) and Tilman and colleagues’ (2011) projections. Cereals are the world's dominant crops. We review and update the main projections of world food demand, discuss examples of environmental improvements needed by 2050, and propose new directions for research and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals. Decrease in world cereal yield growth rate over time. At the same time, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture must drop dramatically to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning. 2011, Tilman et al. Rectifying the prevailing SI narrative is crucial because it is already shaping the future of agricultural research and policy (e.g., USDA 2015, Buckley 2016), with potentially dramatic consequences for the future of food production and the environment. Clearly, environmental sustainability cannot play second fiddle to intensification; efforts to increase food production and reduce aggregate environmental impacts must go hand in hand. The research enterprise led by the National Science Foundation and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) should prioritize efforts to identify and meet quantitative production and environmen… The world’s population is expected to reach 9.1 billion people in 2050, up from 7.4 billion in 2016. Foreword – Michele Allan . Dr Joshua Zeunert from UNSW Built Environment. A new report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO, 2012) argues that with decelerating population growth and saturation of diets in many parts of the world, agricultural production growth will increase by some 60 percent between 2005 and 2050 – a huge drop from the 170 percent increase observed between 1960 and 2005. Mitch Hunter is a PhD candidate in Agronomy at Penn State University, working with Dr. David Mortensen in the Weed and Applied Plant Ecology Lab. 2013, Pretty and Bharucha 2014). These problems must be addressed even as production increases and pollution plummets. Our updates to the FAO (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012) and Tilman and colleagues’ (2011) projections indicate that production of cereals must only increase 26% and 68% from 2014 levels, respectively, to meet 2050 demand (figure 1a, table S1). These goals will need to be refined periodically as new information becomes available, given the uncertainty of long-term projections. Supplementary data are available at BIOSCI online. Some sustainability goals would even result in increased environmental degradation, such as when marginal reductions in per-unit impacts are coupled with doubled output (Monsanto 2008). Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan 2008 for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico and Improving Water Quality in the Mississippi River Basin, Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force: 2015 Report to Congress, Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management, Beyond climate-smart agriculture: Toward safe operating spaces for global food systems, What is sustainable intensification? 2016). We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling midcentury targets for both production and the environment. Beyond this, however, stated goals diverge. The second largest in the world, this dead zone reached 22,000 square kilometers (km2) in 2002 and averages 13,650 km2 per year (EPA 2016). media@unsw.edu.au 2015, Daryanto et al. At the same time, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture must drop dramatically to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning. Total land in agriculture has risen since 2005 in Africa, South America, and Asia (supplemental table S6; FAO 2016), indicating continued land conversion at the expense of native ecosystems, and conversion continues in the United States as well (Lark et al. The notion that global agricultural output needs to double by 2050 is oft repeated. Most authors agree that uncultivated land should not be converted for crop production (e.g., Garnett et al. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%-70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. A new report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO, 2012) argues that with decelerating population growth and saturation of diets in many parts of the world, agricultural production growth will increase by some 60 per cent between 2005 and 2050 – a huge drop from the 170 per cent increase observed between 1960 and 2005. Media Office, UNSW Sydney NSW 2052 Australia All rights reserved. This material is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation under grant no. First, the FAO projection of a 60% increase is frequently misquoted as a 70% increase when authors cite an earlier FAO report (Alexandratos 2006). 2013). “There are various narratives around what the next three decades might hold for the agricultural community in Australia,” Dr Zeunert says. For the project, Dr Zeunert will also interview 40 experts to canvass their views on future likelihoods. Projected 2050 demand for oilcrops is 46% higher than 2014 production levels based on the FAO projection and 50% higher based on a doubling from 2005 (table S2). Regulatory change must include innovative policy and rules to secure property rights and markets to allow for water transfers and groundwater recharge,” he said. We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling SI targets for both production and the environment. Instead, our updated projections are intended to illustrate agriculture's big-picture production challenge. 2014). 2015). However, both US and global data on concerns ranging from biodiversity loss and land conversion to irrigation-water withdrawals—in addition to GHG emissions and nutrient pollution—indicate that agriculture leaves a large and growing footprint (Foley et al. By the time our generation retires, agriculture's 2050 goals must be met. 2012, Cunningham et al. But there's certainly literature out there challenging that as we look ahead several decades. Views from experts, Sustainable intensification in agricultural systems, Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050, Reconciling agricultural productivity and environmental integrity: A grand challenge for agriculture, Sustainable intensification of agriculture for human prosperity and global sustainability, Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health, Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture, Ecological intensification of agriculture: Sustainable by nature, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grants Program: Food Security Program 2015 Request for Applications, USDA National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference, [USEPA] US Environmental Protection Agency, Annual Nutrient Flux and Concurrent Streamflow: Updated through Water Year 2015, Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance: A review, Leverage points for improving global food security and the environment, Using pay-for-performance conservation to address the challenges of the next farm bill. The production of oilcrops—which account for most of the remaining calories and protein from human-edible crops—increased even more, by 39% (supplemental tables S2 and S4; FAO 2016). To illustrate the true scope of agriculture's environmental challenges, we analyze the sector's performance against quantitative targets that have been proposed to achieve specific environmental outcomes: mitigating climate change and limiting eutrophication in the Gulf of Mexico. +61 2 9385 2864, Email. These will enable him to extract key indicators from text, data and mapping – which is often isolated – into spatial datasets and overlays. 2015, Schipanski et al. 2016). Food demand is projected to climb, while environmental impacts must plummet. Current policy heavily favors production, including through crop insurance and revenue- and price-based subsidy payments for commodity crops. This imbalance persists despite calls in the growing sustainable intensification (SI) literature to treat food production and environmental protection as equal parts of agriculture's grand challenge (Robertson and Swinton 2005, Garnett et al. 2013) and ensure that the world's poorest people have secure access to nutritious food (FAO et al. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. We use global demand for cereals as a proxy for total crop demand to illustrate the production increase needed by 2050. This, in turn, fosters a produce-at-all-costs mentality, which may exacerbate existing environmental challenges by increasing the use of fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation, and tillage. To double from a 2005 baseline, in contrast, cereal yields would have to grow continually at a compound annual rate of over 1.5%, which has not been achieved consistently since the mid-1980s ­(figure 2). Agriculture in 2050: The Path Forward October 11, 2017 As the third speaker in our series on genetically engineered crops, Mr. Hunter examines how many people we need to feed by 2050 and how this can be done sustainably. We also linearly transform both estimates to account for differences between the original projections’ assumed 2050 population and the latest United Nations analysis (UN 2015). There is a particularly urgent need to quantify the reductions in pollution and land degradation that must be achieved to sustain functioning ecosystems at multiple scales (Neufeldt et al. [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, International Fund for Agricultural Development, World Food Programme. Additional policy efforts are needed to manage food demand by reducing food waste (West et al. 2017). Agriculture will face many challenges in the future and the growing population will require a drastic increase in food supply. This project was also supported by USDA Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Agriculture grant no. More than $3 billion a year is invested through Australia’s rural research and development sector, driving long-term growth of our production industries . [USEPA] US Environmental Protection Agency. Australian agriculture in 2050: what will it look like? The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is dominated by an imbalanced narrative that calls for food production to increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—without specifying commensurate environmental goals. To bring US policy in line with future needs, producers who receive subsidies should be required to meet more stringent environmental standards, conservation programs should be reformed to tie payments to quantified outcomes (Winsten and Hunter 2011), and effective regulatory backstops should be instituted to control the most environmentally damaging practices. Dr Joshua Zeunert's new project will forecast potential scenarios to inform decision-makers and help ensure our food supply security. 2013, Rockström et al. These projections are complex and are commonly misinterpreted. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. We must also halt cropland expansion (Cunningham et al. (b) Historical and projected direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture and 2050 goal. [IPES-Food] International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems. 2011, Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012, USGS 2015, FAO 2016. Under the FAO projection, the rate of average annual cereal yield growth could fall gradually over the next 35 years and still meet demand using only existing cropland. 2014). 2011, Tilman et al. This provides the opportunity to refine the scenarios if necessary. He completed his PhD by publication in 2018 which, he says, gave him a “track record” for his first DECRA application just a year later. 2013, Long et al. This error is particularly misleading when authors explicitly graph 2050 demand as a doubling from current levels (e.g., Long et al. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. The Competitiveness of Tasmanian Agriculture for 2050 White Paper sets out the Tasmanian Government’s framework for continuing to foster a competitive agricultural sector … Research and policy should pivot to align with this strategy, both in the United States and globally. [IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Conservation incentive programs help producers implement many environmentally beneficial practices, but they are not structured to produce maximum benefits. This database contains projections used for the preparation of the report "The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050". For permissions, please e-mail: Mesophication of Oak Landscapes: Evidence, Knowledge Gaps, and Future Research, Growing Threats to the Scientific and Educational Legacies of Research Stations and Field CoursesKelly Swing, Elizabeth Braker, Peggy Fiedler, Ian Billick, Christopher Lorentz, and David Wagner, Great Expectations: Deconstructing the Process Pathways Underlying Beaver-Related Restoration, Robot Ecology: An Inspiration for Future Ecologists, The Invasion Ecology of Sleeper Populations: Prevalence, Persistence, and Abrupt Shifts, http://news.monsanto.com/press-release/monsanto-will-undertake-three-point-commitment-double-yield-three-major-crops-make-mor, http://toxics.usgs.gov/hypoxia/mississippi/flux_ests/delivery/index.html, Receive exclusive offers and updates from Oxford Academic, Copyright © 2021 American Institute of Biological Sciences. Indirect emissions from land-use change in agriculture and forestry contribute another 12% (IPCC 2014). 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